Guides·Last updated 29 June 2026

How we model your wait, and what the data can and cannot say

Plenty of tools will hand you a confident invitation cut-off and a tidy date. We do not, because the public data does not honestly support it. This page lays out exactly how we model your wait, which signal we trust, which we deliberately ignore, and where we draw the line and tell you we simply do not know.

What we read: the submitted queue and its trend

Our model rests on one reliable signal: the depth of the submitted Expression of Interest queue for your occupation. We look at how many EOIs sit at or above your points score, and how that count has moved over recent rounds. A queue that is shrinking at your score is reaching down to you faster, a queue that is growing is moving away from you. Pair the depth of people ahead of you with the recent pace at which rounds clear the queue, and you get an honest estimate of how long you are likely to wait.

We express that estimate as a band, for example a few months as against closer to a year, because the real process carries real uncertainty. Round sizes change, new candidates join, others raise their scores or get invited. A range tells the truth about that uncertainty where a single date would only hide it.

What we ignore: per-round invitation cut-offs

You will often see a confident claim that a given occupation was invited down to some exact score in the last round, and that you are therefore a fixed number of points clear. We do not lead with that, on purpose. The Department’s published invitation figures are heavily redacted: small counts are masked, and the headline INVITED figure behaves as a cumulative stock rather than a clean per-round count. Trying to back out a precise per-occupation cut-off from numbers built that way produces a figure that looks exact and is not.

How we read it

We do not tell you that you are N points above the clearing line, because we do not believe the clearing line the public data implies. We tell you where you sit in the real submitted queue and which way that queue is moving. That is the claim we can defend.

Where we stop and say we don't know

Some occupations have queues too shallow, or histories too short, to model a meaningful wait. When that happens, we do not stretch the data to fill the gap. We tell you the queue is thin and that we cannot responsibly put a band on it. A model that always produces a confident number is a model you cannot trust on the cases that matter. Knowing when to decline is part of the method, not a failure of it.

The upshot is simple. Treat our wait band as an honest read of your position and its direction, not a countdown to a guaranteed date. It is built to be right about the shape of your situation, even when it cannot be precise about the day.

See the method applied to a real occupation

189 · ICT Business Analyst190 · Registered Nurse491 · Early Childhood Teacher

Common questions

How does SortedOut estimate my wait?We read the depth of the submitted queue for your occupation: how many Expressions of Interest sit at or above your points score, and whether that number is growing or shrinking over recent rounds. From the queue depth ahead of you and the recent pace at which the queue clears, we model a wait band, not a single date. When the data is too thin to support a band, we say so instead of inventing one.
Why don't you show a points cut-off for each round?Because the published per-round invitation figures are heavily redacted. The Department reports invitation data in ways that hide small counts, and the INVITED figure behaves as a running stock rather than a clean per-round count, so deriving a precise occupation cut-off from it would be guesswork dressed up as precision. We will not lead you with a number we cannot stand behind.
What data can the public numbers actually show?They reliably show the shape and depth of the submitted queue and how it trends over time. That is enough to tell you, honestly, roughly how many people are ahead of you and whether your position is improving or worsening. They do not reliably show an exact invitation cut-off per occupation per round, so we do not pretend they do.
Why is the answer a band and not an exact date?Invitation rounds vary in size and timing, and the queue changes as people join, raise their scores, or get invited. An honest model of all that uncertainty is a range, such as a few months versus closer to a year, not a single confident date. A precise date would be more comforting and less true.

Get your honest wait band

See where your score sits in the real queue, and the range you are honestly looking at.

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Keep reading

How the EOI queue and date of effect workWhat an Expression of Interest actually is, why your date of effect decides your place in line, and how SkillSelect picks who gets invited each round.189 vs 190 vs 491: which path and how many pointsThe three skilled visa streams compared in plain terms: who each suits, how state nomination and regional points change the maths, and how to choose.Stuck in the EOI pool: what to actually doPractical, points-first moves when your Expression of Interest has been sitting for months, from raising your score to widening your visa options.